Yesterday’s selling pressure pushed both the S&P 500 (ES) and the Nasdaq 100 (NQ) lower, but here’s the key point: neither of them has actually touched their weekly 21 yet. They’re close — close enough that we can almost feel the gravity pulling them in — but we’re not there.

And until we get that tag, the market hasn’t answered the question we’re all waiting on.

The weekly 21 is mean reversion.
That’s the level that tells the story.

Everything else is noise.

Why the Weekly 21 Is the Only Level That Matters Right Now

People get caught up in all sorts of moving averages. The daily 20, the 50, the 100… it’s endless.

But in a trending market?
The weekly 21 is the truth.

When price returns to it, we find out:

  • “Is this trend still healthy?”
  • “Or is something bigger starting to break?”

And since ES and NQ haven’t actually hit it yet, we’re still waiting on the real signal.

Once they do, the reaction off that level will tell us everything we need to know.

If We Tag the Weekly 21 and the Bounce Is Weak → Breakdown Is on the Table

Here’s the bear case.

If ES and NQ come down, hit the weekly 21, and the bounce that follows is slow, choppy, and just… weak?

That is corrective behavior.
That is not buyers stepping back in.
That is the setup for a trend break.

And if the weekly 21 gives way:

➡️ ES likely moves toward 6,500 or lower.

That’s the next big structural level underneath.

➡️ NQ likely moves toward 23,827 or lower.

Same story — major demand sits down there.

A weak bounce tells us the downside isn’t finished.

If We Tag the Weekly 21 and the Bounce Is Strong → Bulls Step Back In

Now the bull case.

If the indices hit the weekly 21 and rip higher with real momentum — clean candles, speed, strength, participation — that’s buyers defending trend support.

That’s the market saying:
“We’re not done yet.”

And in that scenario:

➡️ ES is heading toward 7,025–7,100.

That’s where the next extension sits and where new all-time highs open up.

➡️ NQ is heading toward 26,500–26,700.

Same idea — the next logical expansion zone.

The strength of that bounce is the tell.

What I’m Watching Right Now

Very simple checklist here:

  • Do ES and NQ actually hit the weekly 21?
  • What does the first reaction look like?
  • Is the bounce strong (impulsive) or weak (corrective)?
  • Are leaders confirming or dragging?
  • Does breadth support the direction?

We don’t need to guess.
We just need to watch the right level.

The weekly 21 will give us the answer.

Final Thoughts

The market is almost there.
We’re inches away from mean reversion.
Once the weekly 21 gets tapped, the bounce off that level will tell the entire story.

Weak bounce → ES 6,500, NQ 23,827.
Strong bounce → ES 7,025–7,100, NQ 26,500–26,700.

We’re close.
Now we let the market come to us and show its hand.